GE 14 THE BATTLE FOR THE INDIAN VOTE & REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT




By Prof Datuk Dr Denison Jayasooria

Introduction

There has been intense campaigning to capture the Indian votes. The days before dissolution of Parliament we saw both the BN and PH having intensive discussions with Indian groups. We noted that Dato Seri Najib was at many Indian based activities pertaining to Tamil schools, citizenship granting, micro credit as well as special grants to NGOs to run grassroot programs. More recently BN distributed calendars to Indian voters. We also saw the PH chairman Tun Mahathir meeting up with Hindraf leaders and concerned groups to ensure Indian support in GE14. Some refer to Malaysian Indians as potential kingmakers.

While the Indian community is a minority the general belief is that in GE 12 the Indian voters played a major role in this shift away from the BN. This was further consolidated in GE13. There is now another opportunity to see how this minority community will vote and who will be their representatives in Parliament as well as in the next government in Putrajaya.
This article provides a simple analysis based on the parliamentary details of voters and candidates released in the media after nomination date (April 28, 2018). The article identifies the vote base and the candidates seeking a seat in parliament.

1          INDIAN VOTER’S FOR GE14
Indian voter’s overview
Malaysian Indians form a significant minority voter block with 9% to 27% of voters in 65 parliamentary constituencies in 9 states in Peninsular Malaysia. It can be noted that in these 65 parliamentary seats there are 5,913,948 registered voters of whom 825,597 or 13.96% are Malaysian Indians
There are times when people do express that Indians are not significant but with 5,000 and more voters it will swing the results if there are splits among Malay and Chinese voters. This is especially so in the parliamentary seats that were marginally won with 1,000 and less votes. Likewise if we review the seats with 10,000 voters to 19, 000 there are 33 parliamentary seats
The voters registered is reflective of the current demographic position of Malaysian Indians. About 95% of Malaysian Indians live only in 38 districts in Peninsular Malaysia
Ethnic size & locations
It is also significant to note that in 7 parliamentary constituencies Indian voters comprise 20,000 and more voters with P111 Kota Raja the highest in both percentages and number of votes namely 27.68% with 41,249 Malaysian Indian voters. Next significant, is P105 Petaling Jaya with 19.54% and 27,535 voters, followed by P 110 Klang with 17.9% and 25,523 voters.


Details are enclosed in the Attachment A as well as Table 1
Table 1 Break down of Indian voters
NUMBER OF VOTERS

NUMBER OF
CONSTITUENCIES
20,000 & above

7
15,000 to 19,000

9
10,000 to 14,000

24
5,000 to 9,000

24
Below 5,000
1

65

GE 13 voter preference
Of the 65 parliamentary constituencies BN won only 20 of them or 30.7% as opposed to DAP, PKR & PAS winning 45 seats which is 69.3%. It is uncertain which way Indians voted in 2013 based on this analysis, however it can be noted that sizable Indian votes in GE 12 & GE13 could have gone towards the opposition candidates.
GE 14 forecast
The Indian community does not have any majority situation at a parliamentary level, however could be labelled as a significant minority vote grouping especially with 10,000 and more voters in 40 parliamentary constituencies.
The question before us, would the Indian community vote differently in GE14 compared to the 2008 and 2013, when the community abandoned the BN. Since then the Najib administration has provided significant interventions to address socio-economic concerns. Would there be a change? Or Indians too especially living in urban locations are also gripped with the change fever?

2          INDIAN CANDIDATES IN GE14 PARLIAMENTARY SEATS
There are a total of 36 Malaysian Indians for GE 14 contesting in 22 parliamentary constituencies. For details see attachment B
Political affiliations
On the BN side there are 12 candidates with 9 from MIC, 2 from Gerakan and another from MyPPP. Many of these seats have been traditionally held by MIC. In 2013 the MIC won only 4, of these namely P72 Tapah, P 78 Cameron Highlands, P94 Hulu Selangor & P140 Segamat
On the PH side there are 14 with 6 from PKR and 8 from DAP,
In addition there are 13 more contesting who are not part of BN or PH. Most significant are 3 from PAS and 3 from PSM. There are also 2 from PRM, 1 from PAP and 4 independent candidates. It is significant that PAS has fielded 3 Indians
The contest
Hottest contest between BN and PH candidates are at 6 places namely P50 Jelutong, P62 Sg Siput, P 78 Cameron Highlands, P107 Sg Buloh, P132 Port Dickson and also P140 Segamat. By hottest I mean where the BN and PH have both fielded Indian candidates to context.
The most crowded contest is P62 Sg Siput where there 3 Indians contesting, likewise P78 in Cameron Highlands where three are contesting. In both cases its between BN, PH and PSM
There are eleven incumbents contesting and they are Kasthururaani Patto in P46 Batu Kawan (PH), Ramkarpal Singh in P51Bukit Gelugor (PH), M Jeykumar in P62 Sg Siput (PSM), M.Kulasegaran in P65 Ipoh Barat (PH), VN Sivakumar in P66 Batu Gajah (PH), M Saravan in P 72 Tapah (BN), P Kamalanathan in P94 Hulu Selangor (BN), Gobin Singh in P103 Puchong (PH), Sivarasa Rasiah in P107 Sg Buloh, Charles Santiago in P110 Klang (PH) and KVS Subramniam in P140 Segamat (BN).
Of these 3 are from BN, 7 from PH and 1 more from PSM. Two successful candidates in GE13 who are not contesting are the late Karpal Singh and G Palanivel
Of the 36 contesting there are only 3 Indian women contesting, one from PH Kasthuriraani Patto in P46 Batu Kawan and two from from BN namely Jayathi Balaguru from Gerakan in P46 and another Mohana Muniandy in P109 Kapar                                       

Potential Outcome
In GE 13 (2013) there were 12 Indian parliamentarians elected, 4 from BN and 8 from the opposition DAP & PKR. This constitutes only 5.4% which is lower to the 8% of the Indian population in Malaysia. The challenge in 2018 is to see if this numbers will increase in terms of Indian ethnic representation in Parliament.
The intense battle will be in P78 Cameron Highlands. In GE13, BN won with only 462 majority and the losing candidate was M Manogran who is contesting again. He is most likely to win this seat against the BN-MIC candidate.
In the case of P62 Sg Siput, BN has a good chance of regaining this back from PH after the later did not field the two time MP Dr Michael Jayakumar but another candidate has been named. In this four cornered fights with the fourth candidate being from PAS, there will be a major test if Sg Siput voters will elect a candidate who is one of the most outstanding MPs in Parliament or vote along party lines.
The YB Dr is outstanding for being one of few MPs who has made a public declaration of assets, he has consistently visited his constituency and served them. He has adopted a simple lifestyle. Has been very active in parliament on ideological issues such as the role of the state, his challenge to the over reliance to capitalistic free markets and his passionate struggle for justice. One criticism indicated is that he does not have money to throw around which is often the practice of some MPs with the resources or connections with big business or funder.
In the case of the BN candidate SK Devamany who was also the BN candidate in GE13 and lost the seat to M Jeyakumar by 2,793 stands a good chance in GE14 as M Jeyakumar is no longer the PH choice. On the downside it is said since GE13, SK Devamany had not visited Sg Siput or continue to service this area. Thus returning after five years to request votes could be seen as an uphill task. None the less party leaders are very hopeful of his victory.
It is forecasted that BN will regain P72 Tapah, P 94 Hulu Selangor and P140 Segamat however it would struggle in all other parliamentary constituencies as P46 Batu Kawan, P51 Bukit Gelugor, P 65 Ipoh Barat, P66 Batu Gajah, P103 Puchong, P 107 Sg Buloh, P 110 Klang will continue to be held by PH
P50 Jelutong could be interesting as the BN candidate Baljit Singh has been a very active person on the ground. Likewise in P132 Port Dickson V Mogan who was a former State Exco member could take it back for BN from new PKR candidate.
For the BN, the 12 parliamentary seat contested by these Indian candidates are key and in a similar way for PH who want to wrestle power from the BN have high hopes that the PH could not just win these parliamentary seats but also win the hearts & minds of Indian voters in 64 constituencies to vote their way on May 9, 2018. Let’s wait and see the outcome.

Attachment A
INDIAN VOTERS GE 14 (2018) – 9% & above voters
PARLIAMENT

TOTAL VOTERS
INDIAN %
INDIAN TOTAL
GE 13 victory
P14 Merbok
87,782
15.34
13,465
BN
P15 Sg Petani
112,577
11.95
13,452
PKR
P17 Padang Serai
84,834
20.74
17.594
PKR
P43 Bagan
71,583
15.03
10,758
DAP
P45 Bukit Mertajam
88,998
9.95
8,855
DAP
P46 Batu Kawan
65,394
22.76
14,883
DAP
P47 Nibong Tebal
73,383
16.95
12,438
PKR
P48 Bukit Bendera
75,069
11.95
8,970
DAP
P50 Jelutong
76,991
11.67
8,984
DAP
P51 Bukit Gelugor
91,595
11.27
10,322
DAP
P52 Bayang Baru
90,780
11.02
10,003
PKR
P58  Bagan Serai
59,293
9.01
5,,342
BN
P60 Taiping
90,729
13.45
12,203
DAP
P62 Sungai Siput
55,002
20.89
11,489
PKR
P63 Tambun
107,763
11.42
12,306
BN
P65 Ipoh Barat
84,874
24.42
20,726
DAP
P66 Batu Gajah
81,399
14.61
11.892
DAP
P68 Beruas
79,794
14.06
11,219
DAP
P70 Kampar
69,436
9.16
6,360
DAP
P71 Gopeng
99,167
9.12
9,044
PKR
P72 Tapah
47,128
14.29
6,734
BN
P74 Lumut
67,157
11.44
7,682
PKR
P75 Bagan Datuk
47,309
21.63
10,232
BN
P76 Teluk Intan
66,487
18.64
12,393
DAP/BN
P77 Tanjong Malim
68,468
13.02
8,914
BN
P78 Cameron Highlands
32,048
14.91
4,778
BN
P89 Bentong
67,359
9.16
6,170
BN
P94 Hulu Selangor
100,990
16.22
16,380
BN
P96 Kuala Selangor
69,397
21.09
14,705
BN
P97 Selayang
116,176
17.70
20,563
PKR
P98 Gombak
141,112
10.77
15,197
PKR
P101 Hulu Langat
102,363
10.42
10,666
PAS
P102 Bangi
178,790
11.12
19,881
DAP
P103 Puchong
96,437
10.03
9,672
DAP
P104 Subang
146,422
15.15
22,182
PKR
P105 Petaling Jaya
140,920
19.54
27,535
PKR
P 106 Damansara
164,322
9.42
15,479
DAP
P107 Sg Buloh
90,707
10.72
9,723
PKR
P108 Shah Alam
107,316
12.78
13,714
PAS
P109 Kapar
124,983
13.55
16,935
PKR
P110 Klang
149,348
17.09
25,523
DAP
P111 Kota Raja
149,021
27.68
41,249
PKR
P112 Kuala Langat
102,406
16.26
16,651
PKR
P113 Sepang
104,508
14.21
14,850
PAS
P115 Batu
76,328
17.46
13,326
PKR
P117 Segambut
77,956
11.77
9,175
DAP
P118 Setiawangsa
72,136
10.38
7,487
BN
P 119 Titiwangsa
61,598
9.42
5,802
BN
PARLIAMENT
TOTAL VOTERS
INDIAN %
INDIAN VOTERS
GE13 VICTORY
P120 Bukit Bintang
69,526
10.95
7,613
DAP
P121 Lembah Pantai
80,346
16.24
13,048
PKR
P127 Jempol
72,122
12.31
8,878
BN
P128 Seremban
110,168
13.25
14,597
DAP
P130 Rasah
102,838
20.95
21,544
DAP
P132 Port Dickson
75,212
21.97
16,524
PKR
P133 Tampin
60,765
11.82
7,182
BN
P135 Alor Gajah
70.364
12.87
9,055
BN
P139 Jasin
73,432
9.77
7,174
BN
P140 Segamat
55,350
10.09
5,584
BN
P 142 Labis
40,356
14.68
5,924
BN
P152 Kluang
96,915
9.38
9,090
DAP
P158 Tebrau
123,033
11.54
14,198
BN
P159 Pasir Gudang
124,172
10.45
12,975
BN
P161 Pulai
106,268
10.28
10,924
BN
P162 Iskandar Puteri
138,299
12.46
17,232
DAP
P163 Kulai
99,147
10.24
10,152
DAP
65 Parliamentary seats
5,913,948
13.96%
825,597





















Attachment B
INDIAN CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENT GE14
PARLIAMENT

BN
PH
OTHERS
P15 Sg Petani


Sirtharan Pichathu (PRM)
P 17 Padang Serai

M.Karupaiya (PH-PKR)

P46 Batu Kawan
Jayanthi Balaguru (Gerakan)
Kasthuriraani Patto (PH-DAP)
Jay Kumar Balakrishna (PAS)
P50 Jelutong

Baljit Singh (BN Gerakan)
Sanisvara Nethaji Rayer (PH-DAP)


P51 Bukit Gelugor

Ramkarpal Singh (PH-DAP)

P62 Sg Siput
SK Devamany (BN-MIC)
S. Kesavan (PH-PKR)
M.Jeyakumar (PSM)
P65 Ipoh Barat

M.Kulasegran (PH-DAP)

P66 Batu Gajah

VN Sivakumar (PH-DAP)
K Kunasekaran (PSM)
P70 Kampar



M Yougam (PAS)
P72 Tapah
M Saravanan (BN-MIC)


P78 Cameron H
C Sivaraj (BN-MIC)
M Manogran (PH-DAP)
Suresh Kumar (PSM)
P89 Bentong


N Balasubramanium (PAS)
P94 Hulu Selangor
P Kamalanathan (BN MIC)

P Kumar (Ind)
P103 Puchong

Gobin Singh (PH-DAP)

P107 Sg Buloh
Pakas Rao (PH-MIC)
Sivarasa Rasiah (PH-PKR)

P109 Kapar
Mohana Muninandy (BN-MIC)

S Manivasagam (PRM)
P110 Klang

Charles Santiago (PH-DAP)
G Puvananderan (Ind)
P111 Kota Raja

V Gunalan (BN-MIC)


P112 Kuala Langat

Xavier Jayakumar (PH-PKR)

P115 Batu


M. Panjamoorthy (Ind), P.Prabakaran (Ind)
P117 Segambut
MJ Loga Mohan (MyPPP)


P130 Rasah



David Dass (PAP)
P132 Port Dickson
V Mogan (MIC)
Danyal Balaagopal Abdullah (PKR)

P140 Segamat
KVS Subramiam (MIC)
Santhara Kumar (PKR)

Numbers

12 BN (9 from MIC, My PPP 1 & 2 from Gerakan)
14 PH  (6 from PKR & 8 from DAP
13 (PAS 3, PSM 3, PRM2, PAP 1 & Ind 4)
                          

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