GE 14 THE BATTLE FOR THE INDIAN VOTE & REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT

By Prof Datuk Dr Denison Jayasooria

Introduction

There has been intense campaigning to capture the Indian votes. The days before dissolution of Parliament we saw both the BN and PH having intensive discussions with Indian groups. We noted that Dato Seri Najib was at many Indian based activities pertaining to Tamil schools, citizenship granting, micro credit as well as special grants to NGOs to run grassroot programs. More recently BN distributed calendars to Indian voters. We also saw the PH chairman Tun Mahathir meeting up with Hindraf leaders and concerned groups to ensure Indian support in GE14. Some refer to Malaysian Indians as potential kingmakers.

While the Indian community is a minority the general belief is that in GE 12 the Indian voters played a major role in this shift away from the BN. This was further consolidated in GE13. There is now another opportunity to see how this minority community will vote and who will be their representatives in Parliament as well as in the next government in Putrajaya.

This article provides a simple analysis based on the parliamentary details of voters and candidates released in the media after nomination date (April 28, 2018). The article identifies the vote base and the candidates seeking a seat in parliament.

1          INDIAN VOTER’S FOR GE14

Indian voter’s overview

Malaysian Indians form a significant minority voter block with 9% to 27% of voters in 65 parliamentary constituencies in 9 states in Peninsular Malaysia. It can be noted that in these 65 parliamentary seats there are 5,913,948 registered voters of whom 825,597 or 13.96% are Malaysian Indians

There are times when people do express that Indians are not significant but with 5,000 and more voters it will swing the results if there are splits among Malay and Chinese voters. This is especially so in the parliamentary seats that were marginally won with 1,000 and less votes. Likewise if we review the seats with 10,000 voters to 19, 000 there are 33 parliamentary seats

The voters registered is reflective of the current demographic position of Malaysian Indians. About 95% of Malaysian Indians live only in 38 districts in Peninsular Malaysia

Ethnic size & locations

It is also significant to note that in 7 parliamentary constituencies Indian voters comprise 20,000 and more voters with P111 Kota Raja the highest in both percentages and number of votes namely 27.68% with 41,249 Malaysian Indian voters. Next significant, is P105 Petaling Jaya with 19.54% and 27,535 voters, followed by P 110 Klang with 17.9% and 25,523 voters.

Details are enclosed in the Attachment A as well as Table 1

Table 1 Break down of Indian voters

NUMBER OF VOTERS	NUMBER OF CONSTITUENCIES
20,000 & above	7
15,000 to 19,000	9
10,000 to 14,000	24
5,000 to 9,000	24
Below 5,000	1
	65

GE 13 voter preference

Of the 65 parliamentary constituencies BN won only 20 of them or 30.7% as opposed to DAP, PKR & PAS winning 45 seats which is 69.3%. It is uncertain which way Indians voted in 2013 based on this analysis, however it can be noted that sizable Indian votes in GE 12 & GE13 could have gone towards the opposition candidates.

GE 14 forecast

The Indian community does not have any majority situation at a parliamentary level, however could be labelled as a significant minority vote grouping especially with 10,000 and more voters in 40 parliamentary constituencies.

The question before us, would the Indian community vote differently in GE14 compared to the 2008 and 2013, when the community abandoned the BN. Since then the Najib administration has provided significant interventions to address socio-economic concerns. Would there be a change? Or Indians too especially living in urban locations are also gripped with the change fever?

2          INDIAN CANDIDATES IN GE14 PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

There are a total of 36 Malaysian Indians for GE 14 contesting in 22 parliamentary constituencies. For details see attachment B

Political affiliations

On the BN side there are 12 candidates with 9 from MIC, 2 from Gerakan and another from MyPPP. Many of these seats have been traditionally held by MIC. In 2013 the MIC won only 4, of these namely P72 Tapah, P 78 Cameron Highlands, P94 Hulu Selangor & P140 Segamat

On the PH side there are 14 with 6 from PKR and 8 from DAP,

In addition there are 13 more contesting who are not part of BN or PH. Most significant are 3 from PAS and 3 from PSM. There are also 2 from PRM, 1 from PAP and 4 independent candidates. It is significant that PAS has fielded 3 Indians

The contest

Hottest contest between BN and PH candidates are at 6 places namely P50 Jelutong, P62 Sg Siput, P 78 Cameron Highlands, P107 Sg Buloh, P132 Port Dickson and also P140 Segamat. By hottest I mean where the BN and PH have both fielded Indian candidates to context.

The most crowded contest is P62 Sg Siput where there 3 Indians contesting, likewise P78 in Cameron Highlands where three are contesting. In both cases its between BN, PH and PSM

There are eleven incumbents contesting and they are Kasthururaani Patto in P46 Batu Kawan (PH), Ramkarpal Singh in P51Bukit Gelugor (PH), M Jeykumar in P62 Sg Siput (PSM), M.Kulasegaran in P65 Ipoh Barat (PH), VN Sivakumar in P66 Batu Gajah (PH), M Saravan in P 72 Tapah (BN), P Kamalanathan in P94 Hulu Selangor (BN), Gobin Singh in P103 Puchong (PH), Sivarasa Rasiah in P107 Sg Buloh, Charles Santiago in P110 Klang (PH) and KVS Subramniam in P140 Segamat (BN).

Of these 3 are from BN, 7 from PH and 1 more from PSM. Two successful candidates in GE13 who are not contesting are the late Karpal Singh and G Palanivel

Of the 36 contesting there are only 3 Indian women contesting, one from PH Kasthuriraani Patto in P46 Batu Kawan and two from from BN namely Jayathi Balaguru from Gerakan in P46 and another Mohana Muniandy in P109 Kapar                                       

Potential Outcome

In GE 13 (2013) there were 12 Indian parliamentarians elected, 4 from BN and 8 from the opposition DAP & PKR. This constitutes only 5.4% which is lower to the 8% of the Indian population in Malaysia. The challenge in 2018 is to see if this numbers will increase in terms of Indian ethnic representation in Parliament.

The intense battle will be in P78 Cameron Highlands. In GE13, BN won with only 462 majority and the losing candidate was M Manogran who is contesting again. He is most likely to win this seat against the BN-MIC candidate.

In the case of P62 Sg Siput, BN has a good chance of regaining this back from PH after the later did not field the two time MP Dr Michael Jayakumar but another candidate has been named. In this four cornered fights with the fourth candidate being from PAS, there will be a major test if Sg Siput voters will elect a candidate who is one of the most outstanding MPs in Parliament or vote along party lines.

The YB Dr is outstanding for being one of few MPs who has made a public declaration of assets, he has consistently visited his constituency and served them. He has adopted a simple lifestyle. Has been very active in parliament on ideological issues such as the role of the state, his challenge to the over reliance to capitalistic free markets and his passionate struggle for justice. One criticism indicated is that he does not have money to throw around which is often the practice of some MPs with the resources or connections with big business or funder.

In the case of the BN candidate SK Devamany who was also the BN candidate in GE13 and lost the seat to M Jeyakumar by 2,793 stands a good chance in GE14 as M Jeyakumar is no longer the PH choice. On the downside it is said since GE13, SK Devamany had not visited Sg Siput or continue to service this area. Thus returning after five years to request votes could be seen as an uphill task. None the less party leaders are very hopeful of his victory.

It is forecasted that BN will regain P72 Tapah, P 94 Hulu Selangor and P140 Segamat however it would struggle in all other parliamentary constituencies as P46 Batu Kawan, P51 Bukit Gelugor, P 65 Ipoh Barat, P66 Batu Gajah, P103 Puchong, P 107 Sg Buloh, P 110 Klang will continue to be held by PH

P50 Jelutong could be interesting as the BN candidate Baljit Singh has been a very active person on the ground. Likewise in P132 Port Dickson V Mogan who was a former State Exco member could take it back for BN from new PKR candidate.

For the BN, the 12 parliamentary seat contested by these Indian candidates are key and in a similar way for PH who want to wrestle power from the BN have high hopes that the PH could not just win these parliamentary seats but also win the hearts & minds of Indian voters in 64 constituencies to vote their way on May 9, 2018. Let’s wait and see the outcome.

Attachment A

INDIAN VOTERS GE 14 (2018) – 9% & above voters

PARLIAMENT	TOTAL VOTERS	INDIAN %	INDIAN TOTAL	GE 13 victory
P14 Merbok	87,782	15.34	13,465	BN
P15 Sg Petani	112,577	11.95	13,452	PKR
P17 Padang Serai	84,834	20.74	17.594	PKR
P43 Bagan	71,583	15.03	10,758	DAP
P45 Bukit Mertajam	88,998	9.95	8,855	DAP
P46 Batu Kawan	65,394	22.76	14,883	DAP
P47 Nibong Tebal	73,383	16.95	12,438	PKR
P48 Bukit Bendera	75,069	11.95	8,970	DAP
P50 Jelutong	76,991	11.67	8,984	DAP
P51 Bukit Gelugor	91,595	11.27	10,322	DAP
P52 Bayang Baru	90,780	11.02	10,003	PKR
P58  Bagan Serai	59,293	9.01	5,,342	BN
P60 Taiping	90,729	13.45	12,203	DAP
P62 Sungai Siput	55,002	20.89	11,489	PKR
P63 Tambun	107,763	11.42	12,306	BN
P65 Ipoh Barat	84,874	24.42	20,726	DAP
P66 Batu Gajah	81,399	14.61	11.892	DAP
P68 Beruas	79,794	14.06	11,219	DAP
P70 Kampar	69,436	9.16	6,360	DAP
P71 Gopeng	99,167	9.12	9,044	PKR
P72 Tapah	47,128	14.29	6,734	BN
P74 Lumut	67,157	11.44	7,682	PKR
P75 Bagan Datuk	47,309	21.63	10,232	BN
P76 Teluk Intan	66,487	18.64	12,393	DAP/BN
P77 Tanjong Malim	68,468	13.02	8,914	BN
P78 Cameron Highlands	32,048	14.91	4,778	BN
P89 Bentong	67,359	9.16	6,170	BN
P94 Hulu Selangor	100,990	16.22	16,380	BN
P96 Kuala Selangor	69,397	21.09	14,705	BN
P97 Selayang	116,176	17.70	20,563	PKR
P98 Gombak	141,112	10.77	15,197	PKR
P101 Hulu Langat	102,363	10.42	10,666	PAS
P102 Bangi	178,790	11.12	19,881	DAP
P103 Puchong	96,437	10.03	9,672	DAP
P104 Subang	146,422	15.15	22,182	PKR
P105 Petaling Jaya	140,920	19.54	27,535	PKR
P 106 Damansara	164,322	9.42	15,479	DAP
P107 Sg Buloh	90,707	10.72	9,723	PKR
P108 Shah Alam	107,316	12.78	13,714	PAS
P109 Kapar	124,983	13.55	16,935	PKR
P110 Klang	149,348	17.09	25,523	DAP
P111 Kota Raja	149,021	27.68	41,249	PKR
P112 Kuala Langat	102,406	16.26	16,651	PKR
P113 Sepang	104,508	14.21	14,850	PAS
P115 Batu	76,328	17.46	13,326	PKR
P117 Segambut	77,956	11.77	9,175	DAP
P118 Setiawangsa	72,136	10.38	7,487	BN
P 119 Titiwangsa	61,598	9.42	5,802	BN
PARLIAMENT	TOTAL VOTERS	INDIAN %	INDIAN VOTERS	GE13 VICTORY
P120 Bukit Bintang	69,526	10.95	7,613	DAP
P121 Lembah Pantai	80,346	16.24	13,048	PKR
P127 Jempol	72,122	12.31	8,878	BN
P128 Seremban	110,168	13.25	14,597	DAP
P130 Rasah	102,838	20.95	21,544	DAP
P132 Port Dickson	75,212	21.97	16,524	PKR
P133 Tampin	60,765	11.82	7,182	BN
P135 Alor Gajah	70.364	12.87	9,055	BN
P139 Jasin	73,432	9.77	7,174	BN
P140 Segamat	55,350	10.09	5,584	BN
P 142 Labis	40,356	14.68	5,924	BN
P152 Kluang	96,915	9.38	9,090	DAP
P158 Tebrau	123,033	11.54	14,198	BN
P159 Pasir Gudang	124,172	10.45	12,975	BN
P161 Pulai	106,268	10.28	10,924	BN
P162 Iskandar Puteri	138,299	12.46	17,232	DAP
P163 Kulai	99,147	10.24	10,152	DAP
65 Parliamentary seats	5,913,948	13.96%	825,597

Attachment B

INDIAN CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENT GE14

PARLIAMENT	BN	PH	OTHERS
P15 Sg Petani			Sirtharan Pichathu (PRM)
P 17 Padang Serai		M.Karupaiya (PH-PKR)
P46 Batu Kawan	Jayanthi Balaguru (Gerakan)	Kasthuriraani Patto (PH-DAP)	Jay Kumar Balakrishna (PAS)
P50 Jelutong	Baljit Singh (BN Gerakan)	Sanisvara Nethaji Rayer (PH-DAP)
P51 Bukit Gelugor		Ramkarpal Singh (PH-DAP)
P62 Sg Siput	SK Devamany (BN-MIC)	S. Kesavan (PH-PKR)	M.Jeyakumar (PSM)
P65 Ipoh Barat		M.Kulasegran (PH-DAP)
P66 Batu Gajah		VN Sivakumar (PH-DAP)	K Kunasekaran (PSM)
P70 Kampar			M Yougam (PAS)
P72 Tapah	M Saravanan (BN-MIC)
P78 Cameron H	C Sivaraj (BN-MIC)	M Manogran (PH-DAP)	Suresh Kumar (PSM)
P89 Bentong			N Balasubramanium (PAS)
P94 Hulu Selangor	P Kamalanathan (BN MIC)		P Kumar (Ind)
P103 Puchong		Gobin Singh (PH-DAP)
P107 Sg Buloh	Pakas Rao (PH-MIC)	Sivarasa Rasiah (PH-PKR)
P109 Kapar	Mohana Muninandy (BN-MIC)		S Manivasagam (PRM)
P110 Klang		Charles Santiago (PH-DAP)	G Puvananderan (Ind)
P111 Kota Raja	V Gunalan (BN-MIC)
P112 Kuala Langat		Xavier Jayakumar (PH-PKR)
P115 Batu			M. Panjamoorthy (Ind), P.Prabakaran (Ind)
P117 Segambut	MJ Loga Mohan (MyPPP)
P130 Rasah			David Dass (PAP)
P132 Port Dickson	V Mogan (MIC)	Danyal Balaagopal Abdullah (PKR)
P140 Segamat	KVS Subramiam (MIC)	Santhara Kumar (PKR)
Numbers	12 BN (9 from MIC, My PPP 1 & 2 from Gerakan)	14 PH  (6 from PKR & 8 from DAP	13 (PAS 3, PSM 3, PRM2, PAP 1 & Ind 4)